Food Inflation Crashes to 14-Year Low

Food prices moderated significantly in January 2026, as the food inflation rate dropped to 8.89 per cent year-on-year, the lowest level recorded in more than 14 years, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

The data also showed a slight easing in headline inflation, which edged down to 15.10 per cent in January from 15.15 per cent in December 2025. This came against earlier projections by analysts who had anticipated a possible rise to about 19 per cent within the period.

Reacting to the development, members of the Organised Private Sector advised against excessive optimism over the marginal decline in the headline figure. They attributed the improvement largely to increased food production and relative exchange rate stability.

The 8.89 per cent food inflation rate marks the first single-digit reading in 128 months and the lowest since August 2011, when it stood at 8.66 per cent. From June 2015, when the rate rose to 10.04 per cent, food inflation remained in double digits consistently until December 2025.

Data from the bureau showed that food inflation fell from 29.63 per cent in January 2025 to 8.89 per cent in January 2026, a decline of 20.73 percentage points over one year. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation contracted by 6.02 per cent in January, compared with a 0.36 per cent decline in December 2025.

The NBS attributed the slowdown to reductions in the average prices of water yams, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon, and cassava tubers.

In the report, the bureau stated, “The food inflation rate in January 2026 was 8.89 per cent on a year-on-year basis. This was 20.73 percentage points lower compared to the rate recorded in January 2025, which was 29.63 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in January 2026 was -6.02 per cent, down by 5.66 percentage points compared to December 2025, which was -0.36 per cent.”

On a 12-month average basis, the food inflation rate moderated to 20.29 per cent in January 2026, a sharp decline from the 38.47 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of January 2025.

The easing comes after an extended inflationary spike between 2022 and 2024. Food inflation climbed from 23.75 per cent in December 2022 to 33.93 per cent in December 2023, before reaching a peak of 40.87 per cent in June 2024.

Although it remained high at 29.63 per cent in January 2025, the rate began a steady downward trend over the course of the year, dropping to 10.84 per cent in December 2025 and slipping into single digits by January 2026.

Overall, the latest reading reflects a decline of nearly 32 percentage points from the June 2024 high.