The United States has cut its imports of Nigerian goods by over 40% within just one month, reigniting worries about the fragility of Nigeria’s trade relationship with one of its most important partners.
According to data from the US Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis, imports from Nigeria dropped from $639 million in June 2025 to $379 million in July — a steep 41% decline.
US exports to Nigeria also fell in the same period, sliding from $919 million to $584 million.
Despite the slump, Washington still recorded a $206 million trade surplus in July, though this was lower than the $280 million surplus seen in June.
Between January and July 2025, the US exported $3.92 billion worth of goods to Nigeria while importing $3.14 billion, leaving a cumulative trade surplus of $781 million.
July’s sharp drop in Nigerian exports signals a deeper erosion of the country’s traditional surplus with the US and its weakening foothold in the American market.
Regionally, the numbers paint a mixed picture. US imports from Africa climbed to $4.47 billion in July, up from $3.67 billion in June, while exports to the continent dipped slightly from $3.37 billion to $3.30 billion.
This shift left Washington with a $1.17 billion trade deficit for July — up sharply from $302 million the month before.
Country-level data show divergent trends. The US posted a $557 million surplus with Egypt in July, but its trade deficit with South Africa widened to $1.42 billion for the month and $7.74 billion for the year so far.
Algeria and several smaller African economies also contributed to America’s growing deficit.
Nigeria’s falling exports coincide with new trade measures rolled out by US President Donald Trump.
In late July, Trump signed an executive order raising tariffs on Nigerian goods from 14% in April to 15% under his “reciprocal tariff” policy targeting surplus nations.
Crude oil, Nigeria’s main export has been partly exempted, but uncertainty around enforcement has reduced demand for non-oil goods, which are now subject to higher duties.
For Washington, the move is part of a broader effort to protect domestic industries and reduce trade imbalances.
Reacting, Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, said Abuja would not retaliate.
“Nigeria remains responsive; we’re not reacting. We’re focused on President Bola Tinubu’s eight-point agenda. Our priority is to support domestic investors and expand market access for Nigerian businesses,” she stated.
She noted that the government is waiting to see the outcome of September’s review of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and is actively working to grow exports to other African nations while deepening partnerships with Brazil, China, Japan, and the UAE.
Development economist and CSA Advisory CEO Dr. Aliyu Ilias has also argued that the situation could ultimately benefit Nigeria.
“Trump’s tariff isn’t unique to Nigeria. This should push us toward export diversification and greater engagement with other trade blocs like BRICS,” he said.
Similarly, Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, downplayed the impact.
“Our trade exposure to the US is relatively small. Nigerian exports there are mostly crude oil and a few commodities. The bigger challenge is Washington’s visa policy, which restricts business travel and investment inflows more than tariffs do,” he explained.
Despite the sharp fall in exports, experts and policymakers agree that the development could accelerate Nigeria’s efforts to diversify its trade portfolio. With AfCFTA integration gaining traction, rising non-oil exports, and growing ties with Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, Nigeria is working to reduce its reliance on the US market.
Still, the July trade figures underscore Nigeria’s vulnerability to external shocks and its heavy dependence on energy exports.
The challenge now, analysts say, is to turn this warning sign into an opportunity to build a more resilient and diversified trade strategy for the future.
