The Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, has cautioned that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) could face serious electoral setbacks in 2027 if it fields either former President Goodluck Jonathan or ex-Anambra State governor, Peter Obi, as its presidential candidate.

In a lengthy post on his X handle on Sunday, Keyamo argued that the PDP was in a “non-enviable position” owing to the strategic mistakes it made in the 2023 elections, particularly its refusal to zone the presidential ticket to the South.

“In 2023, PDP lacked the courage to deliberately zone its presidential ticket to the South, so it woefully lost its decades-long stranglehold on the South-South and South-East, the two regions that had been its most loyal bases since 1999,” he wrote.

According to him, although the party has now attempted to correct that by zoning its 2027 ticket to the South, presenting Jonathan as its candidate poses major constitutional risks.

“One of its attractive targets is ex-President Goodluck Jonathan, because of his purported eligibility to run for only one term. But if he is fielded, the party runs the risk of not having a candidate at all by virtue of Section 137 (3) of the 1999 Constitution (Fourth Amendment),” he warned.

He explained that the constitutional amendment which bars anyone sworn in twice as president from contesting again was introduced after the 2015 court ruling that allowed Jonathan to run for re-election.

“All the arguments as to whether the section can be interpreted to affect him will not be decided on social media, but at the Supreme Court. If he is barred from running after nominations have closed and the PDP is declared as having no candidate, nobody should scream ‘judiciary is corrupt’ because such a large party saw the judicial danger ahead and deliberately ignored it,” Keyamo added.

On the possibility of a Yoruba candidate from the South-West, the minister said such a candidate would face difficulties outside the zone and also contend with the APC’s entrenched political machinery in the region.

“If the PDP decides to field its most attractive South-West candidate, no other region of the country will vote for a fresh Yoruba candidate who would be eligible for fresh two terms in office. And that candidate will battle with the well-oiled APC structures in the South-West,” he noted.

Keyamo also dismissed suggestions of the PDP bringing Peter Obi back into the fold, saying credibility concerns and his one-term pledge would undermine his candidacy.

“If the PDP woos back Peter Obi, the same scenario above will apply to him, hence all his recent talk of serving only one term. In addition, the principled ones among the ‘Obidients’ will see him as going back to his vomit of ‘structure of criminality’ and may not be as vociferous in their support anymore,” he wrote.

Concluding, Keyamo described the PDP’s predicament as a result of its “original sin” in 2023, stressing that zoning remains a decisive factor in Nigerian politics.

“The young social media warriors may lampoon anyone talking about zoning sentiments, but that is the reality of our politics and it is not about to end. Except something extraordinary happens, the party may have to wait till 2031,” he declared.